Methodological description

The mandate calculator estimates the distribution of seats (output) based on the distribution of votes (input, given by the user).
Main assumptions of the model:
Thus the basic formula of the model is as follows: estimated local popularity in 2018 = estimated national popularity in 2018 / national popularity in 2014 * local popularity in 2014 * regional coefficient. An example: Jobbik got 20,7 percent of the vote nationwide in 2014. Suppose it gains popularity with 10 percent (so it will be at 22,77 percent), then it’s local popularity in Veszprém 1st district will increase accordingly, by 10 percent: from 16,5 percent to 18,15 percent. This needs to multiplied by 1.01 (regional coefficient), thus the final local result will be 18,68 percent.